Why Midterms Gain So Much Attention…
In 1894, President Grover Cleveland suffered the worst midterm election loss in American history. Congress saw a change in 5 Senate seats and 116 House seats in the aftermath of voter dissatisfaction from economic woes. The “Panic of 1893” involved a railroad bubble caused by overbuilding, dubious financing, and construction speculation. This led to massive bank failures. Sound familiar?
Economic challenges created a politically perilous environment for President Cleveland and his Democratic Party in the 19th century. The parallels of 1894’s election (in the aftermath of the “Panic of 1893”) to the upcoming 2010 midterms (in the aftermath of the 2008 market dive) are quite apparent.
Only four Presidents since Abraham Lincoln have survived the midterms without losses in Congress. The exceptions included unique circumstances - Teddy Roosevelt’s charisma and media courtship, The Great Depression, Republican mishaps with Clinton’s impeachment trial, and 9/11.
It’s important to note that even popular Presidents like Dwight D. Eisenhower and Franklin D. Roosevelt faced losses during midterms (though FDR bucked the trend in 1934). President Obama enters November’s midterm election with an inevitability presented by historical voting patterns. Also, Obama and his Party are faced with a huge burden - the perception of over spending.
FDR’s 1938 midterm Congressional losses were in direct response to a perceived overuse of the New Deal - he lost 71 House seats. Even before then, in 1890, Republicans were pinned with the “Billion Dollar Congress” - they lost 85 House seats. Clinton’s 1994 health care overhaul attempt was pinned as a massive tax increase and overspending initiative, which turned the House of Representatives over to Republican control for the first time in 4 decades (first time since JFK died) - Democrats lost 54 House seats that year.
The Democratic Party currently holds a 75 seat majority in the House of Representatives and a 10 seat majority in the Senate [(including the ex officio President of the Senate, which is the Vice President of the United States (Joe Biden), who presides over the chamber and is counted during tie breaking votes of the 100 member body)]. Democrats control 26 Governor seats, while Republicans control 24. All of these numbers will change come November.
In our Representative Republic, Congressional seats wield significant power. Each voting member of our nation’s federal legislative body chartered in the first article of the United States Constitution has the power to draft law, approve judicial leadership, cast a vote in favor or against defense spending, and represent our government to the world through diplomatic Congressional delegations. Aside from the history’s voting trends, the power stakes involved in the upcoming election are compelling.
-Brandon Chicotsky
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